Against the odds

'Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo?'

A phrase from our Will containing 39 characters. The probability of randomly coming up with this is around 2 followed by 58 zeroes. There isn't enough space on all the planets in the universe or enough time since it started for monkeys with typewriters to randomly bash out even this phrase. (Although the contract for the supply of the typewriters would be worth a bob or two). Given how much more complex are we than this simple phrase, the argument is put that evolution is not a credible mechanism for our existence - thus proving the existence of a Creator.

Not so.

Firstly, as per the previous blog, we are not looking for a particular phrase, any valid phrase will do (specifically, any life with the intelligence to ask the question 'how did I get here?', or for Hitch-hikers guide fans, 'where shall we have lunch?'). Secondly the above calculation presumes that as soon as you get one character wrong, you have to start again. But as soon as you have a mechanism for retaining bits that work (inheritance), the picture changes dramatically. Finally, the calculation allows for any one of 30 characters to be valid at any point. But of course this isn't the case - not all letters can go next to each other. Similarly not all chemicals bond together, not all sequences of molecules work. (I can hear someone saying 'but that must mean someone designed the rules' - no, but we'll come back to that later).

If you take these into account it would only take just over 1000 attempts to arrive at our phrase, meaning we seriously over-ordered on typewriters. There is more than enough time to arrive at our level of complexity.

Now those of you who know me, will be asking - 'where's he going with this? He's a pastor who firmly believes in God and often uses the creation account in Genesis as the starting point of his theology'.

Keep reading - in the meantime, where shall we have lunch?